Two published data sources describe the conditions oil and gas buyers are working in through the end of 2026. One measures production and price. The other records what firms operating in the region report about cost and supply.
What the EIA forecasts for production and price
In its August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released August 11 with modelling completed August 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. crude oil production averaging 13.80 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with 13.59 million in 2025, and 14.15 million in 2027. EIA attributes 6.78 million barrels per day of the 2026 figure to the Permian region.
EIA forecasts the Brent crude spot price averaging around $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, easing to approximately $78 per barrel by the fourth quarter, and $69 per barrel across 2027. EIA states these figures rest on an assumption that crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained through August 2026, with flows increasing slowly in September.
Process selection for the small-diameter components common in oil field assemblies is covered separately in how Swiss machining and conventional turning differ.
What the Dallas Fed survey recorded on activity, cost, and supply
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas collected responses from 127 energy firms in the Eleventh District, covering Texas, southern New Mexico, and northern Louisiana, between June 9 and June 17, 2026. Of those, 82 were exploration and production firms and 45 were oilfield services firms.
Each figure below is a diffusion index, calculated by subtracting the share of respondents reporting a decrease from the share reporting an increase. Readings above zero indicate expansion.
- Business activity: 21.0 to 46.1. The Dallas Fed identifies this as the strongest reading since the second quarter of 2022.
- Supplier delivery time: 4.5 to 31.7. The Dallas Fed reports that 36 percent of firms noted longer delivery times for materials and equipment.
- Supplier delivery time, exploration and production firms only: 0.0 to 43.2.
- Input costs, oilfield services firms: 34.9 to 64.4. No respondent reported a decrease in costs.
- Capital expenditures: 21.2 to 40.9, with 49 percent of firms reporting increased spending.
- Expected capital expenditures next year: 0. The Dallas Fed describes this reading as suggesting cautious long-term planning despite current spending increases.
On price, survey respondents on average forecast West Texas Intermediate at $81 per barrel at year-end 2026, with individual responses ranging from $60 to $150 per barrel. Respondents forecast a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.36 per million British thermal units at year-end 2026.
What the two sources do and do not cover
Both sources describe 2026 as a high-output year for U.S. crude production. Both also record conditions that lengthen the interval between an order and a delivered item. EIA documents constrained crude flows through a major transit chokepoint. The Dallas Fed documents longer supplier delivery times and rising input costs as reported by energy firms.
Neither source measures machine shop capacity. Neither publishes lead times for machined components, and the delivery time index the Dallas Fed reports covers materials and equipment as reported by energy firms rather than any specific supplier category. Buyers assessing their own sourcing position for the fourth quarter will need to establish those figures directly with individual suppliers.
Supplier qualification steps and the ISO 9001 revision schedule are set out in what oil and gas buyers examine when qualifying a machine shop.
Dates on the figures
Every figure above carries a date because both sources revise on a schedule. EIA publishes a new Short-Term Energy Outlook each month. The Dallas Fed Energy Survey publishes quarterly, and its survey page lists September 30, 2026 as the next release date. Figures should be re-checked against the current editions before use.
This article is general industry information and is not a substitute for the applicable standard, manufacturer documentation, or a qualified engineer’s assessment of your specific application.
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Shamrock Precision has machined precision components since 1981 from Dallas, Texas. The shop is ISO 9001 and AS9100 certified, with Swiss machining, milling, turning, and inspection under one quality system.
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Works Cited
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “Oil and Gas Expansion Gains Momentum; Outlooks Improve but Cost Pressures Grow.” Dallas Fed Energy Survey, 24 June 2026, www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2602.
- United States, Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026. U.S. Department of Energy, 11 Aug. 2026, www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf.